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핵심 요약 및 Action Plan

각 보고서의 첫 결론 블록만 따로 모았습니다. 카드에서 빠르게 훑고, 우측 프리뷰에서 한줄 결론, 3줄 요약, Action Plan 테이블까지 바로 읽을 수 있습니다.

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company

Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

CBRS2026년 8월 21일AI Semiconductors

Price $207.41 | Market cap $49.27B | Target $165.00 | Upside -20.4%

**R/R** -0.32:1 (12M path target $165 vs 12M bear $75; bull-vs-bear cross-check 0.65:1 — BUY gated off) | **Prob-weighted 12M** -20.4% | **Confidence**: Medium | **p_thesis_wrong** 40%

1 key lines0 actions
company

SpaceX (SPCX)

SPCX2026년 8월 21일Space and AI Infrastructure

Price $132.73 | Market cap $1,749.7B | Target $89 | Upside −32.9%

**R/R** 2.5:1 (exit call: −32.9% to 12M path avoided vs +13.0% to the $150 invalidation; entry gate −0.56 → BUY barred) | **Prob-weighted 12M** −32.9% | **Confidence**: Medium | **p_thesis_wrong** 30%

1 key lines0 actions
company

SpaceX (SPCX)

SPCX2026년 8월 6일Space and AI Infrastructure

Price $108.27 | Market cap $1.43T | Target $45.60 | Upside −57.9%

**Risk/Reward on the exit call** 1.5:1 (−57.9% to base FV avoided vs +38.5% to the $150 invalidation) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** −59.7% | **Confidence**: Medium-High on the mark (three methods held under a three-axis stress test), Low on the two-week tape (squeeze window)

1 key lines0 actions
company

SpaceX (SPCX)

SPCX2026년 8월 5일Space and AI Infrastructure

Price $112.14 | Market cap $1.48T | Target $45.60 | Upside −59.3%

**Risk/Reward on the exit call** 1.8:1 (−59% to base FV avoided vs +34% to the $150 invalidation) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** −57.3% | **Confidence**: Medium — three methods converge within $5.50, but two public quarters and a 26% short float make timing treacherous

1 key lines0 actions
company

Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

CBRS2026년 7월 20일AI Semiconductors

Price $172.86 | Market cap $38.522B | Target $86.00 | Upside -50.25%

**12M Bull/Bear reward-to-risk** 0.99:1 (+62.0% to $280 vs -62.4% to $65) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** -25.5% | **P(thesis wrong)** 30%, judgmental | **Confidence** Medium (forecast-model confidence: Low)

1 key lines0 actions
company

Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

CBRS2026년 7월 11일AI Semiconductors

Price $215.08 | Market cap $47.931B | Target $86.00 | Upside -60.01%

**12M Bull/Bear reward-to-risk** 0.43:1 (+30.2% to $280 vs -69.8% to $65) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** -36.4% | **P(thesis wrong)** 32%, judgmental | **Confidence**: Medium (model-risk overlay: low)

1 key lines0 actions
company

Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

CBRS2026년 7월 10일AI Semiconductors

Price $198.53 | Market cap $43.6B | Target $93 | Upside -53%

**Risk/Reward** 0.4:1 for longs (+23% squeeze upside vs -53% to fair value) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** -57% (Bear 35% · Base 45% · Bull 20%) | **Confidence**: Medium

1 key lines0 actions
company

Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

ORCL2026년 3월 9일Technology / Software - Infrastructure

**CapEx 효율성 최악**: Oracle의 CapEx/매출 비율 86%는 Amazon(25%)의 3.4배, Alphabet(46%)의 1.9배. 후발주자의 구조적 비효율

3 key lines3 actions
companyAI Semiconductors

Selected Report

Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

CBRS2026년 8월 21일Cerebras Systems
SellMediumOpen Report

한줄 결론

Price $207.41 | Market cap $49.27B | Target $165.00 | Upside -20.4%

핵심 요약 (3줄)

  1. 01

    **R/R** -0.32:1 (12M path target $165 vs 12M bear $75; bull-vs-bear cross-check 0.65:1 — BUY gated off) | **Prob-weighted 12M** -20.4% | **Confidence**: Medium | **p_thesis_wrong** 40%

Action Plan

Holders reduce 50% into $245 strength and exit the rest above $260; new money waits for $129 (top intrinsic leg) or $92 (blended intrinsic); $75 is the severe-failure stop. ```tearsheet-chart {"type":"action_ladder","title":"Action Plan","currency":"$","current":207.41,"levels":[{"label":"Exit residual","price":260,"weight":"50%","kind":"target"},{"label":"Reduce into strength","price":245,"weight":"50%","kind":"target"},{"label":"Evidence entry","price":129,"weight":"25%","kind":"entry"},{"label":"Core entry at intrinsic","price":92,"weight":"50%","kind":"entry"},{"label":"Severe-failure stop","price":75,"weight":"all","kind":"stop"}]} ```

  • **R/R** -0.32:1 (12M path target $165 vs 12M bear $75; bull-vs-bear cross-check 0.65:1 — BUY gated off) | **Prob-weighted 12M** -20.4% | **Confidence**: Medium | **p_thesis_wrong** 40%