Portfolio Q2 Earnings Sector IC Memo

Executive Summary & Action Plan

Verdict

SELECTIVE HOLD — the strongest earnings season in the book's history (24 of 25 names beat; 15 of 25 raised guidance; memory printed +346–372% YoY revenue), and almost none of it is worth paying today's tape for. Six top-scoring names were audited against normalized fair value: five sit 17–48% above their marks, and exactly one clears both the print gate and the valuation gate. Season stance: hold the one coherent name (Top Pick section below), trim the memory blow-off into strength, and commit no new capital at the tape.

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Abstract

We ran the full Q2'26 sweep: every portfolio company plus six majors, each analyzed on the actual release and call — statements, guidance, and a candidacy score — then the six leading candidates were re-marked or newly struck against IWANNAVY normalized fair value and adversarially audited (all 18 method legs reproduce). The season itself was extraordinary: AWS re-accelerated to +37%, TSMC raised FY26 growth to 40%+, ASML raised FY26 by ~16%, Micron guided 15% above street on record 84.9% gross margin, and Sandisk closed FY26 at +175% revenue. The problem is the tape has paid for nearly all of it: TSM −25%, AMZN −27%, ASML −17%, SNDK −47%, MU −48% versus fair value, and the board's high scores are momentum-weighted while picks are FV-gated. NVIDIA alone clears both gates — third straight quarter of accelerating +85% growth, a $91B guide with China at zero, and a $221 re-mark within 1.4% of the tape. Hold it, add below fair value, trim the memory blow-off.

Action Plan

Hold the Top Pick and add only below fair value; trim memory (MU first, SNDK second) and AVGO/TSM into strength; runners-up MRVL and MSFT are conditional on fresh fair-value strikes before sizing. The ranking below is the report in one frame — upside to IWANNAVY normalized fair value, not to street targets; every name except the pick trades above its mark.

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Prob-weighted 12M return (Top Pick): +1.2% | Clearest avoid: Micron (MU) — the bull leg ($650) sits 29% below the tape | Confidence: Medium-High on the marks (18/18 legs audit-reproduce), Medium on cycle timing

Top Pick — NVIDIA (NVDA)

The only name where print quality and fair value agree: a third straight quarter of accelerating growth (+85% YoY, +3.4% beat), a $91B FQ2 guide with China at zero (any H200 approval is pure upside), and a $221 re-mark — moved from the 8/3 $210 mark on street FY27 revenue revision and FCF-conversion evidence, multiples and WACC unchanged — within 1.4% of the tape. This is a hold-and-add-lower position into the 8/26 print, not a chase. Price $224.09 (2026-08-12 close) · fair value $221 (−1.4%) · probability-weighted $227 (+1%) at 25/45/30 · bull $320 / bear $125 · street mean $303 (n=61, reference).

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Forecast Path

The path prices the Top Pick into the 8/26 FQ2 print. Weights 25/45/30 (bear/base/bull, re-derived at the re-mark): demand confirmation (third acceleration, Amazon's $220B 2026 capex plan, zero-China guide as a free option) shifted 5 points from bear to bull; the Rubin-revision press reports and the $119B supply-commitment build keep the bear tail material. The expected line is nearly flat around $227 — this is a positive-skew hold, not a directional trade.

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The ladder frames the hold: trims into the bull path, adds only below fair value, a hard stop on thesis break.

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State of the Season — the Scoreboard

The board scores print quality + guidance direction + valuation headroom per name; it is momentum-weighted by construction, so FV gaps (where audited) are annotated — six of the eight top scores carry negative headroom, which is the season's defining tension. Full statements, call notes, and guidance per company are in the companion notes.

Score	Name	Guide	The print in one line	FV gap
8.5	NVIDIA (NVDA)	raised	Rev $81.6B +85% (3rd straight acceleration), EPS +6.7% beat, China at zero	−1.4%
8.5	TSMC (TSM)	raised	Record $40.2B +34%, GM 67.7%, FY26 raised to 40%+, capex to $60–64B	−25%
8.5	Micron (MU)	raised	$41.5B +346%, GM 84.9%, FQ4 guide 15% above street	−48%
8.0	Sandisk (SNDK)	mixed	FQ4 +372%, FY26 +175%, debt zero, $15.5B buyback; guide < whispers	−47%
7.5	Broadcom (AVGO)	mixed	FQ2 +48%, AI semis +143%, 3x book-to-ship; FQ3 prints ~early Sep	−23% (8/3)
7.5	Amazon (AMZN)	mixed	First $200B quarter; AWS +37% (5th acceleration), margin 39.4%; TTM FCF −$7.6B	−27%
7.5	Marvell (MRVL)	raised	Thin headline beat, record custom-silicon substance; FQ2 prints ~late Aug	no mark
7.5	ASML (ASML)	raised	+6%/+11% beats; FY26 raised ~16% to €43–45B; memory +>75%	−17%
7.0	Microsoft (MSFT)	raised	Azure +43% → ~45% guide, RPO $678B +84%, Copilot 30M seats; FCF capex-crushed	no mark
7.0	Vicor (VICR)	raised	+60–68% EPS beat, GM 58%; AI power-module ramp	no mark
6.5	GOOG · PLTR · COHR · GEV · GLW · BE · RDW · AMD · CRWV	—	Strong prints, each with one gating flaw (valuation, capex, or concentration)	—
6.0	PL · META	—	Good operators; META capex barbell, PL pre-FQ2	—
5.5	AAPL · RKLB	—	AAPL record quarter but bar-clearing only; RKLB strong print, Neutron gate	—
4.0	ARM	mixed	Expensive perfection with a royalty-mix crack	—
3.0	TSLA	mixed	Delivery beat, margin compression, robotaxi promises carry the multiple	—

Seven names moved ±5% on 8/12 (COHR +8.2%, GLW +5.2%, BE +12.3%, VICR +7.2%, SNDK +5.8%, CRWV +19.3%, SPCX +9.7%) — all news-verified as post-earnings reactions to the 8/11–8/12 print cluster and, for SPCX, the continuing unlock squeeze; no unexplained gaps in the universe.

What to Watch Now

Three prints resolve the biggest open positions inside six weeks: NVIDIA's FQ2 on 8/26 (guide $91B ±2% vs street ~$92B/$2.08 — the guide's zero-China assumption makes any H200 approval pure upside), Broadcom's FQ3 in early September (the 8/3 $320 mark awaits the print; 3x book-to-ship is the bull's evidence), and Micron's FQ4 in late September ($50B ±1 guided — the quarter that will either extend or end the memory blow-off; Samsung's shortage-into-2028 guidance and CXMT's second fab are the two sides of that trade). Around them: Marvell's FQ2 (~late Aug) and fresh FV strikes for MRVL/MSFT/VICR queued before any sizing, the 9/15–16 FOMC with a September hike still partially priced, and SPCX — whose 8/6 SELL mark ($45.60) now sits within ~3% of its own $150 invalidation line after a +35% unlock squeeze — flagged for re-underwrite, not for action, this week.

What to Watch Next (Technology)

The season's structural tell is that the AI trade's bottleneck moved twice in six months: from GPUs to memory (MU/SNDK margin records, NVDA citing memory as the constraint on PC demand, hyperscalers writing memory inflation into guides) and from memory to power and optics (GEV's $176B backlog and record orders, BE's +600bp margin inflection, VICR's ramp, COHR's 80%-YoY datacenter optics with CPO revenue starting December). The 2027 questions that will re-price this book: HBM4 LTA pricing (disclosed around the Korean Q3 prints), whether Vera Rubin ramps "faster than Blackwell" as claimed, custom silicon's share of accelerator spend (MRVL/AVGO vs NVDA), and whether the $725–785B Big-4 capex plan survives its own 32% debt-funding mix.

Fair Value Notes

Method: three legs per name (normalized DCF · justified forward EV/EBITDA · normalized EV/FCF), log-median base, memory names explicitly barred from peak-quarter annualization; every leg, median, and upside audit-reproduced. NVDA $221 (re-marked from $210 on street FY27 revenue revision and FCF-conversion evidence — multiples and WACC unchanged; FY27E EBITDA input is a conservative round-down, trued-up leg $262 leaves the median intact). TSM $320 (normalized OM 52.5% terminal vs 60.3% printed peak; the delta vs the stale 8/3 prior is guide catch-up, honestly labeled). MU $474 (finite-boom PV + normalized 50% GM terminal; beta is a judgment blend — true-Blume WACC pushes FV lower, so SELL is robust either way). SNDK $719 (new coverage; FY27 consensus treated as cycle peak, NAND normalized GM 43%). AMZN $196 (34.6x normalized EV/FCF at tape with TTM FCF negative; probability-weighted $187). ASML $1,504 (widest leg dispersion in the set — DCF $712 vs $1,504/$1,607 — published as model risk; all legs below tape). AVGO $320 carried as-of 8/3, refresh queued at the FQ3 print. SPCX $45.60 (8/6) under re-underwrite post-squeeze.

Catalysts & Risks

Catalyst	Timing	Impact	·	Risk	Prob	Impact
NVDA FQ2 print — guide $91B ±2%, street $92B/$2.08; FQ3 guide is the real swing	8/26	High, binary	·	Rubin-revision reports (late Sep/Oct) harden into a delay	Med	De-rates the 2H acceleration
MRVL FQ2 (~late Aug) + AVGO FQ3 (~early Sep) — runner-up FV strikes queued	Aug–Sep	Med	·	Memory supply response: MU capex $27B→$10B+/qtr, CXMT fab 2 — cycle-top tells stack	High	MU/SNDK marks assume it; tape does not
MU FQ4 print — $50B ±1 guided, GM ~86%	~late Sep	High	·	Peak-earnings low-P/E trap (MU fwd P/E 5.9, PEG 0.03) draws momentum flows into the top	High	The −48% gap closes violently, either direction
FOMC 9/15–16 + NDX float true-up 9/18	Sep	Med	·	September hike lands → duration de-rate across the 20x+ EV/EBITDA cohort	Med	Multiple compression on the whole board
2027 HBM4 LTA disclosures around Korean Q3 prints	Oct–Nov	High	·	AI-credit stress (32% debt-funded Big-4 capex; CRWV refis) tightens funding	Med-High	Capex plans get cut before revenue does

References

Company earnings releases and 10-Q/6-K filings for all 25 names (dated per name in the companion notes) · earnings-call coverage as cited per name
House marks referenced: semis leaders review 2026-08-03 · SPCX re-mark 2026-08-06