Portfolio 6m Upside Sector IC Memo

Executive Summary & Action Plan

Verdict

REDUCE / DE-RISK (re-affirmed, with three amendments) — We adversarially verified all twelve single-pass marks and re-marked Palantir off its blowout print; ten of twelve moved, mostly up. Even on the friendlier corrected marks the book's probability-weighted 6-month expected return is −2.4%, against a −33% bear tail and a +33% bull case, at 1.91 beta and 0% cash. Selling into this week's strength remains positive-expected-value; the marks changed, the asymmetry didn't.

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Price $206.64 | Market cap $5.01T | Target $210.00 | Upside +1.6% IWANNAVY Fair Value (8/3 sector report, held) · price as of 2026-08-03 close · Street $302.83 (reference) — street extrapolates the AI-capex re-rate our mark keeps gated on the 8/26 print 6M base path $225 (+8.9% prob-weighted): two prints (8/26, late Nov) are the re-rate gates, not the current gap.

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Abstract

We re-underwrote the book for a six-month window. An adversarial pass over the twelve fresh 8/3 marks raised eight (AAPL $183→$215, COHR $110→$170, GLW $72→$105, GEV $525→$640, AMZN, SNDK, RDW, PL), trimmed TSLA to $114 on primary-sourced +22% annual dilution, rejected RKLB's $20 as structurally stale (now $34 — still −52%), and Palantir's blowout print forced our first upward re-mark of the week ($105→$130; revenue +93%, FY26 FCF guided $4.5–4.7B). The corrected weighted gap to fair value is −30.2%. Rolling each name's bear/base/bull six-month path into the book yields −2.4% expected return with a −33% tail and +33% bull case — an asymmetry no better than the one that justified the un-executed 8/3 de-risk plan, now carried at 1.91 beta with zero cash into a five-session event stack (SpaceX's first print tonight plus a 911.5M-share unlock Thursday, Sandisk Wednesday, Rocket Lab 8/10). The plan stands with three mark-driven amendments; the bull case requires the AI-capex tape to stay perfect for six more months.

Forecast Path

Book value under the three aggregate scenarios (per-name probabilities, ~30/45/25 blended). The expected line is flat — the same shape that argued for converting tail into cash on 8/3.

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Action Plan

The nine-order 8/3 plan (~$26K raised, 16% cash, beta 1.91→1.50) stands, with three amendments from the re-marks — and unchanged sequencing: SpaceX (SPCX) half-trim or collar before tonight's print, Sandisk (SNDK) 3-of-4 before Wednesday's print.

Amendment 1 — Palantir (PLTR): mark raised to $130; hold the 2.6% position through strength, trim only above $150 (pre-market $146 already sits above the new mark — do not add).
Amendment 2 — Coherent (COHR) / Corning (GLW): trims halved. Verification raised the marks to $170/$105 (COHR is not at peak margins; GLW's optical mix is 46% of sales, not ~20%) — gaps of −41%/−28% still warrant reduction, at half size.
Amendment 3 — Rocket Lab (RKLB): the $20 mark was rejected (stale share count, ignored the $8B Iridium deal) — but at $34 the gap is still −52%; the trim stands on the corrected number.
Unchanged: TSLA (−65% to corrected $114, +22% YoY dilution), MU (−40%), SNDK (−67%), SK hynix (−22%) trims; NVDA/AVGO/GOOG/GEV cores held.
Risk/Reward ~1.0:1 unhedged (bear −33 / bull +33) — the plan's purpose is converting tail into optionality at the house ladders | Prob-weighted 6M −2.4% before rebalancing | Confidence: High on direction/sizing, Medium on path magnitudes.

Every Holding — Six-Month Expected Return

Ranked by probability-weighted 6M expected return off the verified 8/3 close (KR 8/4 close); the bar's target is each name's base-case 6M price, not its fair value — fair values and their status follow below. Note the deliberate tension in TSLA: fair value says −65%, the 6M tape path says +4.6% — we size by the former and time by the latter.

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What Changed Since the 8/3 Marks

Palantir (PLTR) printed a blowout (8/3 AMC): revenue $1.935B (+93% YoY, accelerating), US commercial +149%, adjusted FCF $1.22B in the quarter, FY26 guide raised to ~82% growth with $4.5–4.7B FCF. The print invalidates the $105 mark's "~160x EV/FCF" crux — reworked up to $130 (~63x FY26-guided EV/FCF). Stock indicated +16% pre-market at $146, already above the new mark.
The adversarial round moved 10 of 12 fresh marks — house precedent held (13 of 15 moved in the July exercise). Materially: Tesla (TSLA) dilution is +22.4% YoY on 10-Q covers with Q2 FCF −$1.1B (mark trimmed to $114); GE Vernova (GEV)'s cash generation is confirmed >100% customer-prepayment float (TTM unearned revenue +$19.9B vs $3.0B EBITDA) yet order growth of +88% lifts the mark to $640; Bloom (BE)'s firm RPO is $494M against the $20B+ narrative pipeline (mark held at $88); Corning (GLW)'s optical is 46% of sales growing +32% — the "non-AI book" premise of the $72 mark failed ($105 now); Rocket Lab (RKLB)'s mark missed the $8B Iridium acquisition entirely (rejected; $34).
Monday's eight +5% GAP moves were mostly idiosyncratic, not just beta: Truist upgraded GLW; Citizens raised RKLB on Neutron/Iridium; an Nvidia–Corning US optical-buildout story lifted the optical complex (COHR +9.6%); Redwire (RDW) +11.8% on federal drone-funding headlines; Bloom rebutted short-seller claims; Musk talked SpaceX up into tonight's print. Alphabet (GOOG) +4.4% came with a disclosed ~$23B Berkshire stake — new sponsorship under our −23% gap. Marvell (MRVL) announced an Oct 6 Investor Day and indicated +8.3% pre-market.
Memory sleeve news cuts both ways: CXMT capacity-expansion reports pressured Micron (MU) on 8/2–8/3 while Samsung is reported closing the HBM gap on SK hynix — both support the house peak-cycle marks; the re-mark gate stays the late-October Korean Q3 prints (2027 HBM4 ASP disclosure).

Six-Month Event Map

Date	Event	Book exposure	Gate
Tonight 8/4 AMC	SpaceX (SPCX) first-ever print (cons. ~$6.9B)	7.4%	Connectivity EBITDA ≥62–64% + burn ≤$8–10B keeps the $124 mark
8/5	Sandisk (SNDK) FQ4 (guide $7.75–8.25B, GM 79–81%) → Investor Day 8/13	3.2%	Any NAND-pricing crack breaks the street's $207 FY27 EPS annualization
8/6	SPCX unlock: 911.5M shares ≥1.4x current float, short interest 32–35%	7.4%	Absorption on flat-to-up tape = squeeze fuel; on red tape = overhang
8/10	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Q2 (cons. ~$232M) + Neutron timeline · TSMC (TSM) July revenue	3.5% + 41% indirect	Neutron slip tests the corrected $34 mark; <NT$400B = digestion signal
8/26	NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 FY27	7.3% direct, ~40% indirect	≥$95B print + ≥$100B guide = bull gate for the whole complex
9/2–3 · ~9/22	Broadcom (AVGO) Q3 · Micron (MU) FQ4	17.1%	AVGO guide stumble #2 = trim signal; MU FQ1 DRAM ASP guide
Oct 6 · ~10/27 · late Oct	MRVL Investor Day · GOOG Q3 · Korean Q3 prints	21.2%	2027 HBM4 ASPs = full memory-sleeve re-mark either way
11/2 · 12/8 · Jan–Feb	PLTR Q3 · SPCX full free float · 2027 hyperscaler capex guides + PLTR Q4 (2/8E)	book-wide	The 6M window closes on the 2027 capex reveal — the common factor under 74% of the book

Fair Value Notes (re-verified marks)

Mega platforms (35.9%): AAPL $215 (record 50.1% GM disproves margin-collapse premise; still −29%) · TSLA $114 (dilution + negative FCF; −65%) · GOOG $286 (Berkshire sponsorship vs capex-heavy FCF; −23%) · AMZN $262 (trough multiple credit for AWS reaccel; −8%) · PLTR $130 (post-print rework; +3.5% at the verified close).
AI semis & memory (40.4%): NVDA $210 (+1.6%) · AVGO $320 (−18%) · TSM $310 (−24%) · MRVL $96 (−50%, highest rework probability, 8/27 print) · MU $500 (−40%) · SK hynix ₩1,231,000 (−22%) · SNDK $425 (−67%; 78% GM annualization intact until 8/5 says otherwise).
Power & components (10.9%): GEV $640 (float-funded but order-book real; −48%→−36% post-raise) · VICR $140 (backlog +145% vs 86x TTM EBITDA; −34%) · COHR $170 (not peak margins; −41%) · GLW $105 (optical 46% of sales; −28%) · BE $88 (firm RPO $494M vs narrative $20B; −60%).
Space (12.6%): SPCX $124 (gate = tonight's Connectivity margin; +8%) · RKLB $34 (Iridium-inclusive re-build; −52%) · RDW $6.10 (ATM shelf $500M live, dilution machine; −37%) · PL $14 (firm RPO 1.9x NTM revenue, net cash; −35%).

Catalysts & Risks

Catalyst	Timing	Impact	·	Risk	Prob	Impact
SPCX print + unlock absorption	8/4 → 8/6	Clean beat + absorbed supply = squeeze on 32–35% short float	·	Event-stack gap-downs at 1.91 beta / 0% cash	High	High
NVDA 8/26 bull gate (≥$95B + ≥$100B guide)	8/26	Clears = bull path for ~40% of book	·	2027 hyperscaler capex disappointment — the single factor under 74% of book	Med	Very High
PLTR beat-raise cadence (Q3 guide ~+92%)	11/2 (E)	Sustains the one name printing FCF above our old bear case	·	Memory re-mark DOWN at Korean Q3 prints (HBM4 ASPs soft)	Med	High
Korean Q3 prints — 2027 HBM4 ASPs near 2x	late Oct	Anti-plan trigger: halt memory trims, restore weights	·	TSLA/high-multiple duration under a hiking Fed (Sep hike ~coin-flip)	Med	High
Fed "last hike" signal at Sep FOMC	9/15–16	Duration relief for the whole book	·	Dilution overhangs (RDW ATM, RKLB Iridium stock consideration, SPCX float to 12/8)	High	Med

References

Palantir Q2 2026 results (8/3) · PLTR statistics (2026-08-04)
Sandisk FQ4 date (Business Wire, 7/9) · SNDK profile (2026-08-04) · FT — SpaceX staggered lock-up (8/3) · SPCX profile + short interest (2026-08-04)
SEC 10-Q covers used in share-count verification: TSLA (7/23) · AAPL (7/31) · AMZN (7/31) · GEV (7/22) · BE 10-Q/A (7/22) · RDW ATM 424B5 (6/9)
Monday movers: Truist on GLW (8/3) · Citizens on RKLB (8/3) · Berkshire ~$23B GOOG stake (8/3) · MRVL Investor Day Oct 6 (company PR, 8/3)
Companion house reports: US macro & high-upside map (2026-08-04) · Portfolio rebalance (2026-08-03) · Semiconductor leaders (2026-08-03)