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핵심 요약 및 Action Plan

각 보고서의 첫 결론 블록만 따로 모았습니다. 카드에서 빠르게 훑고, 우측 프리뷰에서 한줄 결론, 3줄 요약, Action Plan 테이블까지 바로 읽을 수 있습니다.

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Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

CBRS2026년 8월 21일AI Semiconductors

현재가 $207.64 | 시가총액 $49.33B | 목표가 $149 | 상승여력 -28.1% 주가 기준: 2026-08-20 미 동부 장중 최종 확인 (fetch_quote.py 권위값, Finviz 교차 +0.06%) — 8/20 확정 종가는 데이터 지연으로 미취득, 부록 검증 로그 참조

펀더멘털 실행(매출 배증·마진 개선·두터운 순현금)은 나무랄 데 없으나, 독립 추정치 로그공간 median 목표가는 현재가를 3할 가까이 하회 — 컨센 $291.64(n=11)와의 갭은 "FY27 무결점 실행 + 추가 메가딜"을 가격에 넣느냐의 차이다.

3 key lines6 actions
company

Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

CBRS2026년 8월 21일AI Semiconductors

Price $207.41 | Market cap $49.27B | Target $165.00 | Upside -20.4%

**R/R** -0.32:1 (12M path target $165 vs 12M bear $75; bull-vs-bear cross-check 0.65:1 — BUY gated off) | **Prob-weighted 12M** -20.4% | **Confidence**: Medium | **p_thesis_wrong** 40%

1 key lines0 actions
company

SpaceX (SPCX)

SPCX2026년 8월 21일Space and AI Infrastructure

Price $132.73 | Market cap $1,749.7B | Target $89 | Upside −32.9%

**R/R** 2.5:1 (exit call: −32.9% to 12M path avoided vs +13.0% to the $150 invalidation; entry gate −0.56 → BUY barred) | **Prob-weighted 12M** −32.9% | **Confidence**: Medium | **p_thesis_wrong** 30%

1 key lines0 actions
company

SpaceX (SPCX)

SPCX2026년 8월 6일Space and AI Infrastructure

Price $108.27 | Market cap $1.43T | Target $45.60 | Upside −57.9%

**Risk/Reward on the exit call** 1.5:1 (−57.9% to base FV avoided vs +38.5% to the $150 invalidation) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** −59.7% | **Confidence**: Medium-High on the mark (three methods held under a three-axis stress test), Low on the two-week tape (squeeze window)

1 key lines0 actions
company

SpaceX (SPCX)

SPCX2026년 8월 5일Space and AI Infrastructure

Price $112.14 | Market cap $1.48T | Target $45.60 | Upside −59.3%

**Risk/Reward on the exit call** 1.8:1 (−59% to base FV avoided vs +34% to the $150 invalidation) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** −57.3% | **Confidence**: Medium — three methods converge within $5.50, but two public quarters and a 26% short float make timing treacherous

1 key lines0 actions
sector

Portfolio — Six-Month Upside Map: Re-Marked, Still Asymmetric to the Downside

Portfolio 6m Upside Sector2026년 8월 4일Portfolio Strategy

Price $206.64 | Market cap $5.01T | Target $210.00 | Upside +1.6%

**Amendment 1 — Palantir (PLTR):** mark raised to $130; hold the 2.6% position through strength, trim only above $150 (pre-market $146 already sits above the new mark — do not add).

3 key lines0 actions
sector

Portfolio — 22 Positions, One Factor: Scenario Rebalancing Into an Event Week

Portfolio Rebalance Sector2026년 8월 3일Portfolio Strategy

Price $109.57 | Market cap $1.44T (13.17B FD sh) | Target $124.00 | Upside +13.2%

**Post-plan book**: beta ~1.50 · memory 11.7% · semis+storage 30.9% · top-5 ~46% — all guardrails restored except TSLA at the 9.5% edge

3 key lines9 actions
sector

Semiconductor Leaders — SK hynix Anchor, Post-Blow-Off Price Paths

Semi Leaders Sector2026년 8월 3일Semiconductor Leaders

Price ₩1,567,000 | Market cap ₩1,112.3T | Target ₩1,231,000 | Upside −21.4%

**Prob-weighted 12M return (anchor)**: −11.4% | **P(house view wrong)**: 0.55 (from 0.62 on 7/21 — timing risk, not arithmetic) | **Confidence**: Medium-High on the valuation framework, Medium on cycle timing

1 key lines0 actions
sector

AI Compute Silicon — Cerebras and the Inference Stack

Ai Compute Silicon Sector2026년 7월 21일AI Compute Silicon

Price $176.88 | Market cap $39.4B | Target $86.00 | Upside -51.4%

**Prob-weighted 12M index return** −12.4% | **P(sector thesis wrong)** 35%, judgmental | **Confidence** Medium-High on the valuation framework, Medium on cycle timing

1 key lines0 actions
sector

Global Memory — DRAM · NAND · HBM, with China in the Frame

Memory China Sector2026년 7월 21일Memory Semiconductors

Price ₩244,000 | Market cap ₩1,406.5T | Target ₩202,000 | Upside −17.2%

**Prob-weighted 12M return**: Samsung +1.3% (Bear 26 / Base 46 / Bull 28) · SK hynix −26.0% (32/44/24) · Micron −37.6% (36/46/18) | **p_thesis_wrong** 0.62 | **Confidence**: Medium-High on normalization, Medium on cycle timing — long-term agreements can extend a peak past what history suggests.

1 key lines0 actions
company

Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

CBRS2026년 7월 20일AI Semiconductors

Price $172.86 | Market cap $38.522B | Target $86.00 | Upside -50.25%

**12M Bull/Bear reward-to-risk** 0.99:1 (+62.0% to $280 vs -62.4% to $65) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** -25.5% | **P(thesis wrong)** 30%, judgmental | **Confidence** Medium (forecast-model confidence: Low)

1 key lines0 actions
sector

Korea AI Memory Complex — Post-Crash Re-underwrite

Kr Ai Memory Sector2026년 7월 13일Korea Semiconductor

Price ₩1,845,000 | Market cap ₩1,310T (~$877B) | Target ₩1,060,000 | Upside -42.5%

**Prob-weighted 12M returns**: SK Hynix −38% (Bull 25% × +8.4% + Base 45% × −42.5% + Bear 30% × −70.2%) · Samsung −39% · Hanmi −58% | **Confidence**: Medium-High on the normalization framework, Medium on cycle timing — LTA-backed HBM demand can extend the peak longer than history suggests.

1 key lines0 actions
company

Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

CBRS2026년 7월 11일AI Semiconductors

Price $215.08 | Market cap $47.931B | Target $86.00 | Upside -60.01%

**12M Bull/Bear reward-to-risk** 0.43:1 (+30.2% to $280 vs -69.8% to $65) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** -36.4% | **P(thesis wrong)** 32%, judgmental | **Confidence**: Medium (model-risk overlay: low)

1 key lines0 actions
company

Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

CBRS2026년 7월 10일AI Semiconductors

Price $198.53 | Market cap $43.6B | Target $93 | Upside -53%

**Risk/Reward** 0.4:1 for longs (+23% squeeze upside vs -53% to fair value) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** -57% (Bear 35% · Base 45% · Bull 20%) | **Confidence**: Medium

1 key lines0 actions
sector

우주 섹터 전망 — SpaceX IPO 전야 (매크로 연계)

Space Macro Outlook Sector2026년 6월 4일US KR Space

Top Pick (US): Northrop Grumman (NOC) | 현재가 $526.06 | 시가총액 $74.72B | 목표가(Base) $650 | 상승여력 +23.6% 주가 기준: 2026-06-04 (fetch_quote.py 권위값) | 컨센 평균 $704(+32.5%, 섹터 최대)·DCF Base $610(+16%) → 중간 $650 채택 Top Pick (KR): 한화에어로스페이스 (012450.KS) | 현재가 ₩1,068,000 | 시총 ₩54.95조 | 목표가(Base) ₩1,650,000 | 상승여력 +55% 국내 증권사 컨센 ₩1,738,810(21명 Strong Buy, BNK ₩1.9M·유안타 ₩1.82M) — yfinance 외국계 목표가 stale, 국내 컨센 채택

**오늘(6/4) 신생주 급락은 펀더 악재가 아니라 밸류·수급 리프라이싱이다.** 3중 트리거 — (a) SpaceX IPO 로드쇼 개시(6/4) (b) 밸류 역전(RKLB 142배 P/S vs SpaceX 107배 P/S + GM 34% vs 50%+) (c) Jefferies "betting against space" 숏 인프라 + RDW Buy→Hold 강등 + Blue Origin New Glenn 폭발(6/1). 방산 Tier 1(LMT/NOC/LHX)은 갭 없음 = **자금이 신생주→실적 방산으로 회전(divergence 확정)**.

3 key lines6 actions
company

Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

ORCL2026년 3월 9일Technology / Software - Infrastructure

**CapEx 효율성 최악**: Oracle의 CapEx/매출 비율 86%는 Amazon(25%)의 3.4배, Alphabet(46%)의 1.9배. 후발주자의 구조적 비효율

3 key lines3 actions
companySpace and AI Infrastructure

Selected Report

SpaceX (SPCX)

SPCX2026년 8월 5일SpaceX
SellMediumOpen Report

한줄 결론

Price $112.14 | Market cap $1.48T | Target $45.60 | Upside −59.3%

핵심 요약 (3줄)

  1. 01

    **Risk/Reward on the exit call** 1.8:1 (−59% to base FV avoided vs +34% to the $150 invalidation) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** −57.3% | **Confidence**: Medium — three methods converge within $5.50, but two public quarters and a 26% short float make timing treacherous

Action Plan

Exit into any bounce; the unlock calendar does the compression work from here — no re-entry until deep fair-value territory, and the sell call itself stops out on a sustained re-rate above $150.

```tearsheet-chart {"type":"action_ladder","title":"Action Plan","currency":"$","current":112.14,"levels":[{"label":"Sell-call invalidation (bull re-rate, cover)","price":150,"weight":"all","kind":"stop"},{"label":"Exit 2 (squeeze zone / IPO line)","price":135,"weight":"remainder","kind":"target"},{"label":"Exit 1 (any post-print bounce)","price":120,"weight":"60%","kind":"target"},{"label":"Re-entry 1 (base fair value)","price":46,"weight":"30%","kind":"entry"},{"label":"Re-entry 2 (DCF sensitivity floor)","price":34,"weight":"40%","kind":"entry"}]} ```

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  • **Risk/Reward on the exit call** 1.8:1 (−59% to base FV avoided vs +34% to the $150 invalidation) | **Prob-weighted 12M return** −57.3% | **Confidence**: Medium — three methods converge within $5.50, but two public quarters and a 26% short float make timing treacherous